I looked at how people search for heat pump installers across Bromley, South East London and Kent. Air To Heat already has a strong organic presence. The more interesting question is whether paid media can add profitable installations without paying for demand you would have captured anyway.
Air To Heat appears prominently for important heat pump searches. That's an asset, not a weakness. The next opportunity is to establish where buying additional search demand actually adds new customers.
Research note: search positions came from a location-dependent, personalised check supplied for this review, not a continuous ranking monitor. Keyword Planner volumes are rounded/bucketed estimates and the geography of the original export remains to be confirmed. These clusters should not be treated as a guaranteed, fully incremental pool. No claim is made here that Air To Heat does not already advertise.
A profit-led campaign should be designed around completed installations, not the number of enquiries it can generate.
Prioritise people looking for heat pump installation and local installers in the areas Air To Heat can profitably serve. Hold back broad informational and grant-only terms initially.
Track the journey from enquiry to survey, quote and completed installation. Separate genuinely new customers from those Air To Heat might have won through existing organic visibility.
Use search to establish the acquisition economics first. Meta or remarketing can support a longer consideration journey when the evidence warrants it, rather than splitting the starting budget too thinly.
The model starts with a focused £750 monthly advertising budget. Change the installation value or margin to see how the commercial outcome shifts. The conversion assumptions can be compared across three scenarios.
Based on the installation value and margin selected, this is the number of incremental completed installations needed annually to cover advertising and ThinkingMan fees.
Important: This is an adjustable commercial model, not a revenue forecast. The £12,500 example combines an indicative £5,000 customer price and £7,500 grant assumption from the supplied research; eligibility, actual receipts and treatment of grant funds must be verified. The 30% gross margin and conversion rates are illustrative, not Air To Heat's financial data. The model assumes paid sales are incremental and attributable, which requires checking against existing organic and direct acquisition. No capacity constraint or seasonal fluctuation is modelled.
Review the searches, locations and enquiry route. Tighten targeting and qualification, rather than increasing budget to compensate for poor leads.
Reduce what we're prepared to pay to acquire a customer, and focus on job types and areas with healthier contribution.
Increase investment where completed-installation economics hold up, instead of assuming all additional search traffic has equal value.
The monthly fee covers the strategy, setup, tracking, campaign management and reporting. A further fee is linked to attributable completed installations, so our interests stay connected to the commercial outcome.
The useful next step is to understand what a typical installation contributes, how many enquiries turn into completed jobs, and how much additional work you'd want to take on. Then we can decide whether the opportunity is worth pursuing.
Talk it through with Prince